![]() ![]() Pathways that achieve this in the IPCC AR6 fall in the IPCC's "C1a" category of pathways. Reaching net-zero global greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century is important to align with Article 4.1 of the Paris Agreement and reduce climate change impacts. ![]() The CAT determines a 1.5☌ compatible benchmark using pathways from the IPCC AR6 pathways that limit warming to 1.5☌ with no or low overshoot, and that are compatible with reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of this century, consistent with the Paris Agreement’s Articles 2.1 and 4.1. The CAT evaluates progress towards this global goal by quantifying the aggregate effects of current policies and the pledges and targets put forward by countries, and compares these with the emissions levels consistent over time with the 1.5☌ limit using the MAGICC climate model (see Methodology section). Limiting warming to 1.5☌ above pre-industrial levels means that the greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced rapidly in the coming years, about halved by 2030, and brought to zero soon after around mid-century. Furthermore, both the current policy and pledge trajectories lie well above emissions pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal. There remains a substantial gap between what governments have promised to do and the total level of actions they have undertaken to date. ![]() See our November 2022 briefing for full details. It must be emphasised that our ‘optimistic’ assessment of end-of-century median warming of about 1.8☌ is not Paris Agreement compatible and that warming higher that 2☌ cannot be ruled out. Even under the optimistic assumption that governments will achieve these targets, the median warming estimate is only limited to level of 1.8☌. We also ran an “optimistic” targets scenario analysing the effect of net zero emissions targets of about 140 countries that are adopted or under discussion. When binding long-term or net-zero targets are included warming would be limited to about 2.0☌ above pre-industrial levels. Current policies presently in place around the world are projected to result in about 2.7☌ warming above pre-industrial levels. ![]()
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